This is a chronological backtest on the 2023–2025 seasons, not a live betting record. The model was initialized with 2010–2022 results, then updated after each completed game. It did not use the result of the game being predicted.
| Season | Games | Hit rate | Market | Margin MAE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 285 | 60.0% | 67.7% | 10.56 |
| 2024 | 285 | 63.9% | 70.5% | 10.40 |
| 2025 | 285 | 63.0% | 66.2% | 10.30 |
The market reference was more accurate in all three seasons. Ties are excluded from hit rates. Mean absolute error (MAE) measures the error in the home-team winning margin, in points.
Probability calibration
2023: model Brier 0.2319, market Brier 0.2186; market margin MAE 9.98 points. Lower is better.
2024: model Brier 0.2188, market Brier 0.2010; market margin MAE 9.70 points. Lower is better.
2025: model Brier 0.2280, market Brier 0.2104; market margin MAE 9.67 points. Lower is better.
Archived moneyline and spread fields are reference closing prices without independently verified capture timestamps. They are not actionable current odds. These results establish a baseline, not a profitable betting strategy.