Former UFC and Bellator lightweight champion Eddie Alvarez has offered a detailed breakdown of Justin Gaethje’s chances against Ilia Topuria ahead of their undisputed UFC lightweight title clash at UFC Freedom 250 on June 13 in Washington.
Gaethje enters the matchup as a significant betting underdog against the unbeaten Topuria, who is described as 17-0 in MMA and 9-0 in the UFC. Despite that, Alvarez believes Gaethje can pull off the upset if he fights with discipline and the right strategy.
"Everyone's writing him off, but I don't know, man – this could go either way," Alvarez said while analyzing the bout.
Alvarez, who handed Gaethje his first MMA loss at UFC 218 in December 2017, focused heavily on Gaethje’s defensive habits and approach in exchanges. He warned that Gaethje "can't lose his eyes" and criticized his tendency to "hard cover," insisting Gaethje must be willing to trade with Topuria to have knockout success.
"Justin does this hard cover, and he can't do that. He cannot hard cover. He has to punch with Ilia," Alvarez explained, adding that both fighters will need to "throw-on-throw" to decide the finish.
Alvarez also urged Gaethje to lean on a familiar weapon. "I think Justin should go back to calf kicks," he said, pointing to Topuria’s "front-foot heavy" stance and suggesting that "damaging, smashing leg kicks" could "really turn this fight into something else that people won't realize."
